Institute of European and American Studies (IEAS)Conference-English Version
E.U. & U.S. Public Policy Forum Conference

US ELECTION – IMPLICATIONS FOR RELATIONS WITH EU

Michael Reilly 
Visiting Scholar

 

 

譯文 (摘要):美國總統大選—對歐盟關係的影響與啟示

  2016年美國總統大選結果對歐盟關係的影響與啟示,大致可分為四大面向,分別為雙邊貿易、雙邊安全、對整個為歐洲情勢的影響與氣候變遷等。

在雙邊貿易方面—
  如台灣、日本、韓國一般,歐洲與美國是主要的貿易夥伴。建立一個新的TTIP,雙方已經談論了多年。目前除非未來的川普政策完全轉彎,否則幾已可斷言現在的TTIP已經名存實亡了。
  TTIP的失敗或可視為挫折,但未來的雙邊貿易關係仍不會中止,一旦塵埃落定,雙方仍可能就現有的TTIP框架續做修正。未來可預期的是,美國企業將會遊說川普政府,讓美國從TTIP所獲致的商業利益與歐盟一樣多。同時,歐盟也會就雙邊投資協定(BIA)問題進行談判,對台灣而言,此無疑是一個契機,未來應好好把握。

在雙邊安全方面—
  無論在雙邊貿易談判上會有何結果產生,但就現階段的雙方而言,貿易只是次要問題,主要的問題依然是圍繞在安全議題上。因為,一如台灣、韓國與日本一樣,歐洲也是透過北約(NATO)組織依附在美國此一保護傘之下。
  除了烏克蘭、敘利亞、土耳其等國家給歐盟帶來的麻煩外,歐盟內部也有自身的問題持續困擾著,例如:英國脫歐(Brexit)、希臘債務危機、難民潮、ISIS及其支持者的恐怖主義的威脅等。這些安全議題,在在仍需美國的參與北約組織,繼續扮演領頭羊的角色。

在對整個歐洲情勢的影響方面—
  川普的勝利無疑給了歐洲右派極大的鼓舞力量。相對於義大利和西班牙政府的弱勢,明年的法國、德國和荷蘭大選,右派勢力都有紛紛崛起的可能。其中,德國的梅克爾將是關鍵,因為她是歐盟政府中唯一具有真正領導力的領袖。明年秋天,她將面臨連任選舉,屆時,歐洲的情勢將會更加明朗。

在氣候變遷方面—
  川普的當選,對氣候變遷議題上的實質影響,端視其是否會將美國自巴黎協議中撤出而定,也將為美國與歐洲長期關係定下基調。
  總之,歐盟不能忽視美國,無論各國在美國總統大選前是否表態支持川普,未來都得尋找出一套如何與川普政府相互合作的模式,實為當務之急。

原文:US ELECTION – IMPLICATIONS FOR RELATIONS WITH EU

  A light-hearted opening comment from a columnist in yesterday’s FT: 
  “I am left with some awful thoughts. For example, that Newt Gingrich might be the next secretary of state, which would give an undeserved respectability to Boris Johnson, or that Rudy Giuliani might run the justice department which could herald a 21st century version of the Spanish Inquisition.”
“If those nightmares are not bad enough, I am also struck by the fact that a Trump victory is a triumph for America’s farmers, even though the candidate would not know a cow from a pig and the only green grass he treads is on his golf courses.” 
  And from the French Ambassador to the US: “The world is coming apart before our eyes.”
  So what are implications for Europe? Four key areas – two bilateral - trade and security, third is what I call domestic – the impact within Europe. 4th is climate change.
  Taking external first – as for Taiwan, or Japan, or Korea, for Europe the US is major trading partner. Two sides have been talking for some years now about a new TTIP. Barring a complete about turn by Trump we can assume that the TTIP is now dead. But realistically it was very much in doubt anyway. And probably within Europe not too many tears will be shed. Would it have been different with a Clinton victory? Maybe but quite probably not – recent problems over agreeing CETA with Canada showed difficulties comprehensive trade deals face. Populist perceptions that main beneficiaries would be big multinationals haven’t helped, still less the revelations about tax deals they’ve done with national governments in Ireland, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands etc. 
  Reality is that agreeing any new comprehensive trade deal will require major commitment and leadership to a degree lacking among all world leaders today with possible exception of Angela Merkel. But she can’t do it on her own. 
  See likely failure of TTIP as setback, no more. Trade won’t stop, transatlantic trade growth has been slow most of this century anyway, so doesn’t change much. And don’t rule out possibility that once dust settled, two sides will explore possibility of a scaled down version – a deal is every bit as much in US business interests as EU ones and expect US business to be lobbying Trump. 
  In meantime an opportunity for Taiwan – EU has offered talks on a BIA, Taiwan should seize the moment. 
  Whatever happens on trade negotiations, however, for now at least a secondary concern. 
  Big questions surround security issues. Very real for Europe – again, like Taiwan, Korea and Japan, very reliant on US security umbrella through NATO. It faces on its borders a resurgent, truculent Putin still making trouble in Ukraine, a bitter unresolved conflict dragging on in Syria, an increasingly authoritarian Erdogan in Turkey – another NATO member – not to mention continuing threat of terrorism from ISIS and its supporters. A potent cocktail. 
  Trump’s campaign comments about Putin will be especially worrying in Europe – already divided over whether or not to toughen sanctions against Russia over Ukraine, Polish president has been quick to write to him seeking his assurances that will abide by NATO commitment to increase troops in east – together with Baltic States understandably worried by Russian attempts at destabilisation. 
  On the other hand, Trump’s professed willingness to work with Putin on Syria could bring results – but not the sort that Obama or EU had once hoped for. Instead, suspect most likely outcome would be deal which sees Assad supported at price of Chechen style campaign against moderate opposition – meaning yet more refugees heading to Europe. Big question too over what if anything he will do about Turkey’s increasingly interventionist stance in region – doubt he will do anything to check Erdogan’s increasing authoritarianism – so after hopes of Arab spring of not long ago, see Middle East moving back towards authoritarian governments built round personality cults. 
  On their own, these are all individual challenges that could – should - be handled by a united European response and clear leadership. The EU has often talked about doing so and US presidents have tried in past to encourage it – Obama over Libya, GHW Bush and Clinton over former Yugoslavia. Each time EU found wanting. If Trump’s election and his threats about not helping other NATO members finally spur Europe into action will be a benefit – but not hopeful. 
  EU is already beset by problems of its own – Brexit, Greece, Syrian refugees, terrorism and more. It was hoping for continued leadership from US. Obvious response should be to work together more - Pres. Hollande has already called for a united Europe in response. 
  But leaders preoccupied with domestic concerns.
Weak governments in Italy and Spain, next year sees elections in France, Germany and Netherlands. Trump’s victory will have undoubtedly boosted right wing – biggest potential beneficiary likely to be Marine Le Pen and FN in France – Le Pen has already welcomed his victory. Suspect likely to increase prospect of Sarkozy trying to make a comeback. But boost too to Orban in Hungary, and other right wing/nationalist leaders - can only increase internal strains within the EU.
  As so often the case, Merkel will be the key. She is only EU head of government who has shown real leadership in recent years. She faces re-election next Autumn. By then things may be clearer – if Trump proves to be as bad as some fear, it should strengthen her position – German voters will not want to add to uncertainty and will opt for experience. Conversely and maybe paradoxically, if Trump turns out better than expected may also help her as voters may feel his rhetoric is not matched by reality so voting for AFD would not be a solution.
  Haven’t mentioned climate change until now but what Trump actually does on this - specifically whether or not he withdraws the US from the Paris Agreement – will set the tone for the longer term relationship. It’s an important issue for Europe and one on which it has staked considerable diplomatic effort over the years. But as Chancellor Merkel implicitly recognised in her statement following Trump’s win, the EU cannot ignore the US, so it will have to find ways of working with him.
  Bottom line is as former congressman Vin Weber, a vocal critic of Trump, said: “America’s role in the world is suddenly an open question. But I wouldn’t assume the worst. I’d assume a question mark.”

 

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